NFL Week 1: My Picks
Can I get an AMEN!!!?????
Football is BACK!!!!!!!!!
**tries to calm down in order to write a somewhat respectable post**
Throughout the NFL season I will give out my weekly picks against the spread. I started really paying attention to lines about two seasons ago when my dad needed help on some pool’s. Well, I’m in three of my own this year, one of them with a triple digit investment, so it’s safe to say I’m a dedicated gambler because of it. Throw in three fantasy teams and my new DirecTV subscription with Sunday Ticket and you have an addicted NFL junkie here.
All lines are taken from Thursday morning’s USA Today lines.
Home teams in bold.
Packers (-4.5) over Saints
Packers are home, fired up, 1239871284 guys returning from injury last year, a young fierce defense and the best QB in the league. Although I like the Saints this year the Lambeau atmosphere will prove too much for the Dome-friendly team.
Steelers (+2) over Ravens
Roethlisburger owns the Ravens. He currently has a seven game win streak against the Joe Flacco-led birds. The Ravens are home but the Steelers are poised for big things this year. A healthy Big Ben, Mike Wallace, Troy, Harrison trump an aging Ravens defense and apprehensive Flacco.
Lions (+1) over Buccaneers
I’m kinda sorta buying the Lions this year. Let’s put it this way: I like them more than the Buccaneers who just completed their “Hey we snuck up on the league this year!” campaign. Stafford is actually healthy this week, Megatron is the 3rd best WR in the league, Nkdamdiadasidasdjakdhanank Suh is already one of the best defensive players in the league and Jim Schwartz is quietly evolving into a very good NFL coach.
Falcons (-3) over Bears
I hate Jay Cutler. I hated him when he was on the Broncos, I hated his Victor Ortiz “I don’t deserve to get beat up like this” mentality in the playoffs last season and I hate the way he looks. Do you want that guy as your franchise QB? Honestly…probably but that’s only because of the current QB situations the Bay Area has now. Oh…this game? The Falcons are Super Bowl contenders, the Bears are barely hoping to be a .500 team this year. The Falcons are the more complete team, have an improved defense and the Offensive Rookie of the Year Julio Jones. Over/under 2.5 picks for Cutler? I like the Over.
Chiefs (-5.5) over Bills
Arrowhead is a tough place to win, **cough** even though the Raiders beat the Chiefs there last season **cough**. The Bills have some nice pieces in San Francisco’s own Stevie Johnson and Defensive Rookie of the Year Marcell Dareus, but the Chiefs love the spotlight at home (they beat SD last season on opening day) and win this game by a touchdown.
Texans (-9) over Colts
No Peyton? Texans at home? Even with no Arian Foster I like Schaub to have a HUGE game and beat the Kerry Collins Cryptkeeper-led Colts. I just hope at least two his touchdowns go to Andre Johnson…
Eagles (-5.5) over Rams
Mike Vick on turf? One of the most explosive offenses in the league with a mediocre defense on the other side? I like the Eagles. BIG.
Browns (-7) over Bengals
My survivor pick this week. Colt McCoy looked good…wait for it…this PRE-SEASON. Still, the Bengals are starting a rookie Ginger at QB and have signed all of the 49ers scraps on defense. Odds are if you’re cut from the 49ers you’re not very good. Browns by 13 points.
Jaguars (+1) over Titans
A battle of elite RB’s here. Luke McCown doesn’t excite me, but neither does Matt Samuel L. Jackson’s Character from Unbreakable Hasselback. I like the Jags at home by single digits. Hey McCown, hand it off to MJD will ya?
Giants (-3) over Redskins
I don’t like the Giants. Maybe because of my “If your QB always looks mopey odds are he isn’t an elite QB” theory. He did win a SB though, I give him dap for that. Rex Grossman? Oh…he played in a SB too? Sweet Lord what the hell is the NFL coming to? Oh well. Giants over the Rexskins.
Panthers (+7) over Cardinals
I’m a Cam believer. You heard it first in my last post. I don’t know why I like him so much. Is it the chipmunk ears? The soft chocolaty skin tone? Pause. Anyway, I think everyone is overrating Kolb too. What exactly has he done? I think the Cards pull it out by a field goal.
Seahawks (+6) over 49ers
Both teams are blow average, to say it nicely. For fantasy purposes I hope Gore goes off (like he usually does against Seattle). Tavaris Jackson? Bleh. Alex Smith? BLEH. I see this being a close game throughout with the Niners pulling it out. This one is going to have some funky safety or missed PAT. It has that kind of feel to it.
Vikings (+9) over Chargers
I went back and forth on this one. I am automatically biased against the Chargers. Phillip Rivers is the Andy Roddick of the NFL; the bitchy attitude without winning anything at all. I like AP to go off in this game and McNabb to show flashes of his younger self. Gates has another TD (or two) and Rivers has another 350 yard day. This game is a shootout waiting to happen.
Jets (-4) over Cowboys
America’s Team with another prime time game, this time against the New York Jets. The Jets defense is stout and the Cowboys offense looks great on paper. Something’s gotta give. Romo is healthy, Dez is finished stealing jewelry from malls and Jason Garrett now has some experience being a head coach. Still, the Jets have the D. PAUSE.
Patriots (-7) over Dolphins
Patriots against the Dolphins. Not much more I need to say is there?
Raiders (+3) over Broncos
The Raiders DRUMMED the Broncos twice last year. The three points here is basically a toss up. Von Miller is supposed to be a man possessed, but he’s still a rookie starting in his first game. Kyle Orton is better than Tim Tebow, but that’s not saying a whole lot. The Raiders D-Line is actually very good, it’s the Nnamdi-less secondary I’m worried about. Can Run DMC actually run like he can? If so the Raiders take it.