NFL Week 3: My Picks

I’m planning on having short descriptions for each game for my weekly picks, but due to reasons outside my control (Mayweather/Ortiz, parties, etc.) I wasn’t able to last week. I still went 11-5-1. Maybe I should make my picks slightly buzzed all the time?

Also, so you know where I’m at mentally, I will never ever ever ever ever put money on the Ravens (or Titans) again. I chose Baltimore in not one, but TWO survivor pools last week and they screwed me. Seriously, how does a Super Bowl contender, after de-pantsing Pittsburgh the week before, lose to a Matt Hasselback led Titans team against one of the top defenses in the league? I will try to avoid putting my money on any Ravens game this year because of this game. I can’t trust Baltimore.

That’s the NFL for you. Time for the picks.

11-5-1 last week.

19-13-1 overall.

Home teams in BOLD.

49ers (+3) over Bengals 

This game is entirely dependent on Frank Gore. He hasn’t looked like Gore this year at all. I don’t see the explosion or cuts out of his legs like I usually do. Can it be because the line is bad? Sure, but the 49ers have never had a particularly great line. Can it be the poor QB play? Sure, but 49ers QB’s have never torn it up. If Frank Gore turns into Frank Gore (125+, 1 TD, 40 receiving yards), then the 49ers win this game straight up. This will be a close one.

Patriots (-9) over Bills

I’m not a believer in the Bills yet. They beat down a horrible Chiefs team and an unproven Raiders secondary traveling across the country after a Monday night game. The Patriots pass defense isn’t that much better, if at all, but the Bills gave up 35 points to a depleted Raiders offense at home, not a good sign with Tom Brady and Co. coming into town. The Bills will get their usual 17-24 points, but the Patriots will go for 35+.

Saints (-3.5) over Texans

The Shootout in the Superdome. The Saints made Jay Cutler look like a rag doll last week but the Houston offensive line isn’t as bad as Chicago’s. Houston’s secondary is better but not good enough to contain the Saints. Arian Foster is most likely out while Mark Ingram has yet to show up in the NFL. Something’s gotta give right? Both teams will put up points but the home factor will push the Saints to victory. I see a 31-24 or 34-27 game here. This will be a fun one to watch.

Eagles (7.5) over Giants 

Michael Vick will play, but will he finish the game? I don’t think he will, but the Philly defense will blitz and haunt Eli Manning’s dreams for games to come. The Giants won’t score more than 14 points in this game. So can Vick put up enough points by the time he gets another concussion? I think he will. His backup’s backup didn’t look to bad last week either. Seriously though, how is Vince Young hurt right now? Anyone remember? I can’t.

Dolphins (+3) over Browns 

I saw this stat this week where it said the Dolphins are 1-13 in their last 14 home games? I could be off by a game or two but that’s ridiculous. I guess you can be better away than at home? Didn’t think that was possible. Anyway, the pre-season hype for the Browns quickly died after Colt Mccoy started to look like a bottom 10 QB and people finally figured out that Peyton Hillis is white. I like the Dolphins to take this one easily.

Titans (-7) over Broncos

Ugh. I guess I have to pick this game. The Broncos are atrocious and the Titans aren’t very much better. I still am confused about the Titans win last week. I probably will NEVER get that one. Titans are home here and the Broncos look like a team waltzing their way towards a top 5 pick next year. Wouldn’t be surprised if Brady Quinn saw some snaps here late either. I think CJ2K looks like CJ2K here too. Expect 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns from him.

Lions (-4) over Vikings 

The Lions are for real. I know I know you’ve heard that 10392398149 times this NFL season but I had my doubts. With Stafford healthy this is a playoff team. They put up points like nobody’s business and put pressure on the QB like no other team in the league. McNabb has looked BAD two games in. Peterson will get his usual but the Lions, in a dome, with everyone healthy? Double digit win for them on Sunday.

Jaguars (+4) over Panthers 

Just a gut feeling here. No reason to believe Cam won’t throw for another 350+ and 2+ TD’s. No reason to believe Blaine Gabbert will come in and actually show signs of a passing game. Can MJD play like the MJD of old? I think he can, especially against a depleted Panthers LB corps. Jaguars by a FG here.

Chiefs (+15) over Chargers 

The Chargers will still win this game but the Chiefs will cover. Why? Because the Chargers are always due for a stinker game (or four) the first month of the season. The Chiefs know the Chargers being in their division. The Chiefs can’t be THAT bad can they? OK, with Berry and Charles out they might be. That’s a lot of points the Chargers are giving knowing their early season struggles.

Raiders (+3.5) over Jets

Upset special: the Raiders will beat the Jets outright. The Raiders defensive front is quietly one of the best in the league,  and when Sanchez gets pressure he looks nothing more than an average QB. Heck, even without pressure he looks like an average QB. The Jets aren’t an high scoring team. So can the Raiders offense put up points against a tough Jets D? That’s the question. Revis will most likely roam considering the Raiders have no true No. 1 receiver. Look out for whoever Cromartie is covering (especially if its Waka Flocka Denarious Moore Flocka Flame) to break one for a big gain. Raiders home opener with the Jets traveling cross country. I like the Raiders.

Ravens (-3.5) over Rams

As I said before I will not be putting money on the Ravens the rest of the season. But the Rams are without Steven Jackson and have the most injuries in the league. Baltimore was embarrassed last week and this week they get back on track. Expect at least one defensive TD from them on Sunday too. This line should be double what it is. Oh well. Take the Ravens. Can’t believe I just typed that.

Falcons (+1) over Buccaneers 

The Falcons got the win last week, but if Michael Vick plays out the game the Eagles win it. The Bucs were down by 17 points to the Vikings before making a comeback in the Metrodome. With that said the Falcons are the better team. They have the better supporting cast on offense and the better defense. Talib on Roddy White will be fun to watch but keep an eye on Julio Jones, this could be his breakout game.

Seahawks (+3.5) over Cardinals

Can’t believe I’m picking the Seahawks here. They are absolutely atrocious. The Cardinals SHOULD win this game. This game won’t be for the faint of heart. No one outside of Arizona and Seattle should be watching this monstrosity of a game. One thing going for Seattle: their at home. Seattle is one of the toughest places to play and the Cardinals aren’t good enough to win big despite that. At worst the Cardinals win by a FG.

Packers (-4) over Bears

The Bears can’t stop ANYBODY from taking down Cutler. The Saints ripped him a new asshole last week. Figuratively and literally. The Packers blitz and blitz and blitz and today should be no different. The Packers put up points and I expect the Packers win this game by double digits. The Packers are clearly the better team, so the fact that they play each other twice a year doesn’t have much bearing with me. Expect Rodgers to have a big deal and Cutler to get sacked…and sacked…and sacked.

Steelers (-11) over Colts 

The Steelers defense…playing a Peyton Manning-less Colts…starting Kerry Collins…anything else need to be said here?

Redskins (+6.5) over Cowboys 

This line is a typical Cowboys line. The line-makers always give too much credit to the Cowboys. No way should they be 6.5 point favorites after barely squeaking by the 49ers last week. Romo, Felix and Dez are all banged up. Miles Austin isn’t playing. The Redskins are actually playing pretty well this year, Grossman is looking like an actual NFL QB, Hightower/Helu are running well and DeAngelo is a ball hawk. Take the Skins.



One response

  1. Love your work here and your willingness to make picks. Keep up the good work!

    September 25, 2011 at 7:26 PM

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