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NFL Week 4: My Picks

My fantasy football team may be in trouble. In my most important league, a league in its 2nd year that includes numerous members of my family, I’m 1-2 with a very murky outlook. In our first offline draft I drafted Peyton Manning and Frank Gore in the 4th and 5th rounds back to back (I had the 12/12 pick). Peyton is obviously done for the year and Frank Gore’s best years are behind him. Ugh. Thought they would be worth the picks at the point in the draft but so far they haven’t panned out.

I don’t want to bore you with my fantasy team lineup or waiver wire pickups or my ridiculous trade proposals that I hoped the other owner would accidently click “Accept Trade” (Don’t act like you haven’t proposed those before) so they went through. I just needed a little venting. I haven’t missed the playoffs in fantasy football at all. Ever. That includes the last 5-6 years or so. We’ll see how this year goes: a $300 prize is on the line. Not to mention the trash talking, trophy and year of bragging rights I get if I win.

Here’s hoping I get back on track this week after two straight heartbreaking losses (both by less than 5 points).

9-7 last week.

26-21-1 overall.

Home teams in BOLD and CAPS

Lions (+1) over COWBOYS

Another favorable Cowboys line. The Lions should be 3.5 point favorites here. As long as Stafford and Megatron are healthy I like the Lions most weeks to cover. The Cowboys are banged up. They haven’t scored a touchdown in two weeks. Not to mention they’re playing a Lions team ON FIRE. Take. The. Lions.

Saints (-7) over JAGUARS

For my fantasy team’s sake I hope MJD goes off here. Knowing my luck he’ll carry the ball 24 times for 56 yards and a fumble. We know the Saints can put up points and we know the Jags can’t. The Jags are starting Blaine Gabbert and the Saints have Drew Brees. Both defenses are below average but the Saints will win this by 10+. Here’s hoping the score is 40-30 with MJD scoring three times. Yeah…right.

49ers (+7) over EAGLES

I’m riding the 49ers cover train baby! They’re 2-0-1 against the spread this year. The Eagles look like the worst best team ever. What would you give me for: the Eagles NOW vs. the Miami Heat during their terrible 9-8 start? This will be Kendall Hunter’s breakout game. With Gore likely to be active but be on the sidelines the stage is set for Hunter to show what he’s got against the league’s worst run defense. Hunter looked good last week while Gore has looked sluggish. Will Vick stay on the field long enough to secure a W? I think he will. I like the Eagles to win 21-17.

RAMS (+1) over Redskins

This is the start of the Redskins coming back to reality. They aren’t that good. Before the season I thought they were the worst team in the league. Coming off a short week and a loss traveling away to St. Louis I like the home team here.

Titans (PICK) over BROWNS

I really can’t explain how the Titans are 2-1 right now. CK2K has played about 1/4 of himself. Their defense doesn’t jump off the page screaming “GREATNESS” like the old Titans. Somehow Matt Hasselback has looked like his Super Bowl self (Yeah…remember he started the Super Bowl?). Meanwhile the Browns are back to being the Browns. This will be the “Chris Johnson is Back and 412409810948190849140384 Fantasy Owners Rejoice” game.

Bills (-3) over BENGALS

OK, remember how I said I wasn’t a Bills believer? For three quarters I was feeling pretty smart. Then the Tom Brady pick-fest happened and the Bills 4th quarter swag came back. The Bills can put up points anywhere and Cincinnati is no different. Bills win big.

Vikings (-2) over CHIEFS

After Adrian Peterson’s lack of touches/complaints last week I expect 93 carries against KC this week. Wouldn’t be surprised if his stat-line is something like: 382 yards, 6 TD, 135 receiving yards, 1 passing TD, recovered fumble & 4.5 sacks.

PANTHERS (+7) over BEARS

My readers/Twitter followers know I’m a firm Cam Newton believer. What has he done this season so far? Just rank 3rd in the league in passing yards with a 59.8% completion rate and 4 TD’s/4 INT’s. Not bad for a rookie that can’t play in the NFL. The Bears? They can’t block anyone. Seriously. NO ONE. Panthers win this game outright.

TEXANS (-4) over Steelers

The Steelers look bad this year. Not just bad by their standards…but BAD by any standards. The Texans should have beaten the Saints last week after failing to score in the red zone numerous times. Houston is home, Arian Foster is back and the Steelers are coming off a CLOSE win against a Peyton Manning-less Colts team. The Texans roll.

Giants (+1) over CARDINALS

I guess Vegas thinks the Cardinals are better than they actually are. I don’t see how Vegas favors the Cardinals here. I guess they see the Giants will have a letdown game after their beat down of the Eagles last week. I don’t see it. The Giants are better. Osi is back. Eli may not be completely average. Giants all the way.

Falcons (-5) over SEAHAWKS

I thought about this one for awhile. By awhile I mean about 45 seconds. Still, I think the Falcons take this by a TD. The Falcons have looked horrible this year. Yes they beat the Eagles but that was at home, with Vick hurt against the worst rush defense in the NFL. The Falcons are simply too talented not to win this game by a TD. Just typing that sentence had be re-considering this pick. Oh well. Too late to go back now.

Dolphins (+9) over CHARGERS

Even though the Chargers are 2-1 they’ve been looking like the Chargers of September we all know. Barely beating the Vikings at home, losing to the Pats and beating the horrific Chiefs by a mere FG all show signs of a Norv Turner team. I think Brandon Marshall goes off in this game and Reggie Bush doesn’t look entirely useless. I like Miami.

PACKERS (-13) over Broncos

Aaron Rodgers. Lambeau Field. Broncos defense. That is all.

RAIDERS (+4.5) over Patriots.

Like the 49ers I’m riding the Raiders cover train until it stops baby! In my season preview I liked the Raiders to win the AFC West and win 10 games. Prediction looks pretty solid right now as the Raiders come off a convincing win against a supposed Super Bowl contender. The Patriots are pissed after losing a 21 point lead against their division rival Bills. The “Richard Seymour Comeback” game is in full effect. We’ll hear his name a few times in the broadcast. This will be a great game to watch…a straight shootout. Until the Raiders prove me otherwise I’m rolling with them. Oh yeah and Run DMC is pretty good too.

Jets (+4) over RAVENS

I had a tough time with this one. Like I stated last week I hate betting on the Ravens, you never know what you’re going to get. Both good defenses. Both with iffy QB’s (Yes Flacco thew 3 TD’s last week but that Titans game I still can’t get over). I expect at least one defensive TD from the Jets D in this game. The Jets have a nice comeback win after their loss last week.

Colts (+10.5) over BUCCANEERS 

Am I crazy to think that Curtis Painter may not be a terrible thing for the Colts? Seriously. At least he can move around a little bit. He kept the Colts in their game last week against the Steelers. 10.5 is a ton of points to a Bucs team that doesn’t score a lot of points. I like the Colts to cover here.

—Jordan

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